Why Good Judgement Matters More Than Certainty: And the Hidden Costs of Waiting

What uncertainty really does

When markets become uncertain, people often assume the biggest risk is making the wrong decision. But interestingly, we see something different from coaching a cross section of the industry, and that is another risk of not deciding at all.

We hear people delaying difficult conversations because "the timing isn't right" or holding back from contacting clients until there is "more certainty". We witness putting off investment in people or systems because… "Well, let's see what happens".  It can be tempting to wait for one more report, one more budget announcement or one more quarter before committing. And that’s understandable, because waiting feels safe and sensible. It feels like we are reducing risk, but waiting is still a decision.

In some instances, that can be exactly the right decision. But often we underestimate or fail to recognise the hidden costs of waiting. This month in particular people have been talking about decision fatigue. Whilst they may not have articulated it that way to us at first, people describe becoming mentally tired because everything feels important but fewer decisions or actions are being taken to make progress. A sense of “pushing water up a hill” can quickly prevail if short term results are not visible. We are at risk of consuming inordinate amounts of information, spending longer thinking about or discussing options, and becoming busier without necessarily becoming more productive.

Waiting for certainty by consuming more and more information or continual monitoring can quietly replace progress. And because waiting is an active process nowadays (there’s always more info available or another viewpoint to consume) the danger is it feels both safe and busy, so we don’t notice what’s really going on.

What commercially effective professionals are doing differently

We have spotted these three approaches across professionals who appear calm during uncertain periods, even though they are not necessarily calmer people (and we do get to know our coachees well!). They have developed habits that allow them to keep moving despite circumstances, safe in the knowledge that they exercised good professional judgement, and are making the best decisions they could at any point in time. 

1. Exercise professional judgement with enough information

Rather than waiting for full and perfect information, they ask themselves "Do I have enough information to make a sensible decision? I.e. Is it commensurate with what is feasible to know, or am I searching for unrealistic confidence?”

Not every decision deserves months of analysis, and many decisions can be reviewed, adjusted or reversed. Knowing the ease and speed at which a decision can be reversed, or even simply acknowledging it could be reversed, can go a long way towards taking action in uncertainty. Waiting for complete certainty and confidence can delay progress more than it improves outcomes.

2. Protect mental capacity for good judgement

Not all decisions require executive-level thinking. We see professionals become exhausted because they treat small decisions with the same intensity as significant ones, and sometimes succumb to circular thoughts. Practical pointers to keep this in check include:

• Allocating time for making decisions, and choosing to do this early in the day before becoming embroiled in responsive working;

• Using thinking frameworks to consolidate information (for example Edward De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats);

• Shortening the planning timeline by asking "What's the next sensible step?" to focus on action, instead of "What's our three-year plan?" which can feel overwhelming;

• Actively managing mental load by regulating sleep, nutrition, rest, breathing, exercise and hydration avoids the expectation of peak mental performance without the right foundations in place to facilitate it.

3. Focus professional judgement on your sphere of influence

We often hear the phrase "control the controllables." It's good advice, but perhaps not specific enough for the complex challenges many professionals and “doer-leaders” experience.

What’s likely to be inside our sphere of influence is not government policy (though we have high hopes for Real Estate:UK), interest rates or global markets, but rather:

• how well you prepare;
• how rational are your responses;
• how clearly you communicate;
• how visible you are in the market;
• how much you instil trust and confidence;
• how you articulate reward vs risk;
• how you empathise with clients;
• how well you safeguard the quality of your client relationships;
• how effectively your team works together;
• how you manage your mental load.

The most commercially effective professionals spend remarkably little energy worrying about things they cannot influence.

Coaching questions that help

When uncertainty is high, these are some of the coaching questions we ask most often that appear to help. 

What decision actually needs making?
What happens if you don't decide?
Based on what you know, what's the next sensible step?
What are you waiting for, and will it genuinely change your decision?
What are the risks of not deciding?
Six months from now, what decision will you wish you'd made today?

Conclusion

The market may remain uncertain for some time yet, and inevitably politics will change, markets will fluctuate and tech will continue to evolve. But professional judgement has always been valuable. This includes assessing enough intel to make or advise the next sensible step, communicating it clearly, reviewing it honestly and adapting when circumstances change. Exercising good professional judgement, and doing so whilst acknowledging the hidden costs of waiting, is more likely to be commercially effective than making no judgement at all.